~~Rants del Nicoleta~~

What a spectacular day today!  Dow is down 358.41 points, SP down 38.82, and the Nasdaq down 79.89 (Ouch.)  Oh well, win some lose some.  Up, down, stagging around!

Now, on to how I predict growth and all that other fun stuff.  So first:

Point movements on:

Dow: -50 to 50, normal range for a “typical” day (ie no bad moves), 75-100 small rally, 100+ exceptional (Too many in a short period indicates wide-spread uncertainty.)  Negative holds true but in reverse.

S&P 500: Usually follows the Dow, but on a much smaller scale.  -10 to 10 normal, 10-20 rally, 20+ rare.  Negative holds true but in reverse.

Nasdaq:  A mixture, sometimes follows the trend sometimes doesn’t.  Very widespread.  -30 to 30, hard to pinpoint so it’s a rough estimate.   Anything below or above 30 should be treated with caution.

With all these hundred point moves on the Dow, over one thing usually, is an example of this uncertainty, and it won’t go away until Oil crashes (July/August.)

5-Yr, 10-Yr, and 30-Yr note is used by me to determine short-term currency exchanges.

Example: 5-Yr is 100.039 {3.37%}, and the 10-Yr is at 98.859 {4.02%}, so I might expect a small increase for the dollar within 6 months if it holds steady, but it will drop a bit later on.  The rates I usually don’t pay any mind to.

Yen-Euro-Pound:  Compare and contrast where the dollar is rising/falling and how it well affects stuff.  It has risen extremely slightly since the year began.  Driven by exports.

Gold is used for currency evaluations over the period of usually a week, so it changes frequently.  At $800-$900/oz.  it varys widely depending on the day and the dollar beating!

Oil and gas, mainly done to figure the price at the pump for the next day/week.  A rule of thumb I developed is:  For every $35-$40/barrel, expect gas prices to rise nationally by about a $1 at the pump.

And keeping track of the trends yields a basic and a small amount of predictions.